Swimming upstream: 7 reasons the Google Android phone will fail

Posted October 10, 2008 at 08:55 AM by JG Mason

Section: Communications, Cellphones, Smartphones, Mobile, Originals, Web, Google

A couple of weeks have passed since the T-Mobile/Google event and my uneasy silence hasn’t dissipated.  Sure, I am impressed that beloved Google is involved, the apps are cool and don’t even get me started about compass mode in maps.  Very cool stuff.  But it doesn’t matter.  Here are the top 7 reasons Android will fail.

1. Android as a parting gift

Android will become a default, but not a desired item.  As more and more phones use the open source OS because that is the cool thing to do in today’s market, they will be many choices of devices with Android.  More choice dilutes the brand and dilutes the experience. 

2. The ghost of Palm

We’ve seen this from Palm.  Go to Handango and look at all the apps.  Apps alone don’t make an ecosystem.  Passionate users do.

3. U-G-L-Y, you ain’t got no alibi.

The G1 is not the ambassador Android needs.  With all the images of the Google phone swimming around, the best HTC can do is a 3 year old looking model that is clunky, brickish (before Apple made bricks cool) and just meh.  If the launch date were not so close, the conspiracy theorist in my would have thought they showed that phone only to surprise us at launch with the real one.

4. Will you upgrade to the G2?

With so many choices coming on the Android platform, the upgrade path for consumers gets muddled.  Instead of being bugged by each product refresh, every Android phone is a possible upgrade.  Soon consumers will get tired/confused of the stream of new models and turn off.  Anyone care to guess how many of those iPhone 3G owners also owned a first gen? 

5. Too many choices?

I was reading yesterday on how Apple was being too heavy handed on keeping out apps that duplicate the core functionality of the iPhone.  Apps like email and browser are summarily tossed out.  Folks were grumbling about this to no end.  But, there is some logic to this (bring it on, haters) and here it is: keeping the core functionality under control means each user will have a similar experience.  That means you can say, “the iPhone’s Safari browser works well.“  Maybe not all love it, and there are some limitations, but the experience is consistent and becomes a feature. 

The alternative would be “the G1 with Firefox is great” or “the G1 with Chrome lite is great” or “the G1 with IE Mini is great.“  Each one slicing the experience up and making the user potentially confused.

6. Branding

While phone junkies like you and I might know who HTC is, does anyone else?  Is HTC going to run plucky ads espousing the G1’s virtues?  Or will it come from T-Mobile, just like every other phone they sling.  One of the changes with the Apple offering is they controlled the marketing, phones from a company that isn’t the carrier you hate.  It is a significant difference we shouldn’t lose sight of.

7. Google itself

A while back, I asked the question if Google was going to play favorites with its mobile OS and guide features to Android that it won’t offer for the iPhone.  Seems they are not according to some new bits of news in the latest SDK build.  Things like street view are apparently coming to the iPhone (though no mention of compass mode, where your phone orients its map to your direction and spins as you spin around).

Money is the reason Google is in somewhat of a pickle.  Google is first and foremost an advertisement selling network; that is what pays the bills.  Google has an incentive to reach out across platforms to not get left behind or replaced as an app provider because it needs those eyeballs. 

This man’s point of view

My view from the outside, as a guy who visits phone stores just to browse (I am seeking help for that), is that consumers are not going to flock to this as T-Mobile and Google hope.  Maybe Google’s end game is just becomes the default giving them access to all those eyes and not be the darling of us phone junkies who just see it as another option.  Will it provide an alternative to the bland Windows Mobile?  For sure.  Will it fuel consumers with lust and must-have-iness?  I don’t think so.

How about you?  Let’s battle it out in the comments.