Swimming upstream: 7 reasons the Google Android phone will fail
A couple of weeks have passed since the T-Mobile/Google event and my uneasy silence hasn’t dissipated. Sure, I am impressed that beloved Google is involved, the apps are cool and don’t even get me started about compass mode in maps. Very cool stuff. But it doesn’t matter. Here are the top 7 reasons Android will fail.
1. Android as a parting gift
Android will become a default, but not a desired item. As more and more phones use the open source OS because that is the cool thing to do in today’s market, they will be many choices of devices with Android. More choice dilutes the brand and dilutes the experience.
2. The ghost of Palm
We’ve seen this from Palm. Go to Handango and look at all the apps. Apps alone don’t make an ecosystem. Passionate users do.
3. U-G-L-Y, you ain’t got no alibi.
The G1 is not the ambassador Android needs. With all the images of the Google phone swimming around, the best HTC can do is a 3 year old looking model that is clunky, brickish (before Apple made bricks cool) and just meh. If the launch date were not so close, the conspiracy theorist in my would have thought they showed that phone only to surprise us at launch with the real one.
4. Will you upgrade to the G2?
With so many choices coming on the Android platform, the upgrade path for consumers gets muddled. Instead of being bugged by each product refresh, every Android phone is a possible upgrade. Soon consumers will get tired/confused of the stream of new models and turn off. Anyone care to guess how many of those iPhone 3G owners also owned a first gen?
5. Too many choices?
I was reading yesterday on how Apple was being too heavy handed on keeping out apps that duplicate the core functionality of the iPhone. Apps like email and browser are summarily tossed out. Folks were grumbling about this to no end. But, there is some logic to this (bring it on, haters) and here it is: keeping the core functionality under control means each user will have a similar experience. That means you can say, “the iPhone’s Safari browser works well.“ Maybe not all love it, and there are some limitations, but the experience is consistent and becomes a feature.
The alternative would be “the G1 with Firefox is great” or “the G1 with Chrome lite is great” or “the G1 with IE Mini is great.“ Each one slicing the experience up and making the user potentially confused.
6. Branding
While phone junkies like you and I might know who HTC is, does anyone else? Is HTC going to run plucky ads espousing the G1’s virtues? Or will it come from T-Mobile, just like every other phone they sling. One of the changes with the Apple offering is they controlled the marketing, phones from a company that isn’t the carrier you hate. It is a significant difference we shouldn’t lose sight of.
7. Google itself
A while back, I asked the question if Google was going to play favorites with its mobile OS and guide features to Android that it won’t offer for the iPhone. Seems they are not according to some new bits of news in the latest SDK build. Things like street view are apparently coming to the iPhone (though no mention of compass mode, where your phone orients its map to your direction and spins as you spin around).
Money is the reason Google is in somewhat of a pickle. Google is first and foremost an advertisement selling network; that is what pays the bills. Google has an incentive to reach out across platforms to not get left behind or replaced as an app provider because it needs those eyeballs.
This man’s point of view
My view from the outside, as a guy who visits phone stores just to browse (I am seeking help for that), is that consumers are not going to flock to this as T-Mobile and Google hope. Maybe Google’s end game is just becomes the default giving them access to all those eyes and not be the darling of us phone junkies who just see it as another option. Will it provide an alternative to the bland Windows Mobile? For sure. Will it fuel consumers with lust and must-have-iness? I don’t think so.
How about you? Let’s battle it out in the comments.
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Looks like the lack of responses says it all - everyone has enough on their minds with stock markets etc. that phones are just not that big of an issue.
Personally, will look at the G-Phone only as an upgrade to my BlackBerry as I gave up on the BlackBerry Bold coming out anytime soon.
on October 11, 2008 at 01:11 PM - LINKHi. I completely disagree with your entire article. In fact I wrote an article of my own titled: 7 Reasons Why Android is a Game Changer.
You can find it at http://thebriefproject.com
See you on the battlefield
on October 13, 2008 at 09:00 PM - LINKAJ, great rebuttal. I love that we disagree on just about every point and could probably volley back and forth for days.
Should we meet, the first beer is on me. Nicely done. Of course, I completely disagree.
on October 22, 2008 at 09:17 AM - LINKJG: Nicely written, but I couldn’t disagree more. The G1 may not be the hottest thing on the market since the original iPod and iPhone, but it’s a great offering from T-Mobile. I watched a number of iPhone users with their devices but just couldn’t get excited enough about the iPhone to buy it, even after a major redesign a few months ago.
I’m a dyed-in-the-wool Palm user (going back to the Palm Pilot when it was a 3Com machine) and Palm offers a free development platform for their devices. While it wasn’t an easy learning curve for me (it took several years to really get their API) I did appreciate what was provided once I understood it all. The Android SDK and API is far better by comparison. I’ve been able to write simple applications in a fraction of the time it took me for Palm and, again, with free development tools from Eclipse.
First, let’s clarify one thing - “Android” is a platform, not a phone. The G1 from HTC is the first phone that runs Android, a superset of Java with its own new platform classes. There will be other Android phones, rest assured. The Open Handset Alliance has a vested interest in ensuring that Android works well. So hold your fire about the G1 being a lousy phone; the original iPhone has had its issues (problems with activation servers, major price drops weeks after introduction, etc.).
Okay, Palm users are not trendy hipsters. They don’t carry 32 GB iPods loaded with music and video and don’t have a SoCal vibe. But there are millions of Palm platform users, still. The Centro, Palm’s latest offering, has been a huge success. Palm has always tended to go after business users, while Apple has tended to go after recreational users. The iPhone is, essentially, a media player that can make phone calls. The Palm Centro is a smartphone with a full keyboard that’s designed for business.
And don’t mistake fanaticism for devotion. One of the reasons the Palm platform has zillions of applications is that the development platform is accessible and free. (There are also other development tools from third-party vendors that can speed up the process, but most hobbyists aren’t going to use those.) Palm users are plenty happy with the Palm platform.
Palm, of late, though, has had their own issues because of their buyout by the Japanese company Access. Access has been working - slowly - on revamping the Palm OS. There are no devices that can run their new Access Linux Platform. At least the G1 was smart enough to have a working phone for their platform.
Your hits on the G1’s design were cheap shots. I like the simplicity of the G1’s body and screen. At least the G1 has a full, folding, back-lit keyboard. The iPhone is still working on giving users the feel of a real keyboard with their virtual “kickback” sensors. It’s just not the same. When it comes to entering information that must be spelled or entered right, that physical keypad is a godsend.
Your argument about the “G2” and upgrade cycles was lost on me. What’s wrong with upgrades? The way the vast majority of phones age anyway, most users dump theirs in a couple of years anyway. Plus, the technology is only going to improve.
Point number 5 about Apple’s weeding-out process with their iPhone App Store illustrates another problem with the iPhone platform. While the user “experience” (as you call it) will be more parallel, there certainly won’t be as much choice. PC’s swamp Macs in sales because, especially for the business community, there are oodles more choices for users wanting applications.
Apple’s developer program even makes it harder for developers wanting to get into posting their software. Joining the program starts at $99 and if you want to develop using their tools, you’ve got to have a Mac. There’s no Windows version of the iPhone development kit. That means anyone wanting to develop, coming from the Windows world, will have to shell out north of $800 just to get in the door. Businesses may want to deal with that, but hobbyists and shareware developers won’t.
Google will find their own market with the G1 and Android, for sure. It’s just that the users aren’t going to resemble Apple’s cult-of-personality fanboys.
That’s fine with me.
on November 21, 2008 at 12:01 AM - LINK