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Casual internet: a term that will define the younger generation that has access to the internet, not for business purposes, but when lounging.  The iPhone allows this casual internet experience, but now, teleco carriers are moving to supply everyone that doesn’t have an iPhone with low cost netbooks.  The New York Times says this is a force that will change PCs as we know them and to a point, I agree.  But the Times is wrong about the impact.

Dead cats?

You can’t swing a dead cat in Staples, Best Buy, or other computer purveyor without hitting a slew of netbooks.  These darlings are just powerful enough to muster casual internet browsing but not a lot more.  They are small, light, and cheap.  There is a particular HP that calls to me every time I visit stores, but so far, I’ve resisted.

Forbidden fruit

And that is just it: the carriers are now moving to make them irresistible.  How?  The Times reported AT&T is offering a netbook complete with a connectivity contract for data services so you can surf every and anywhere, for just $50.  The move is afoot and we fully expect to see free netbooks with a service commitment.  From the Times:

“This year, at least one wireless phone company in the United States will probably offer netbooks free with paid data plans, copying similar programs in Japan, according to industry experts.”

Is Free enough?

Free rules, so why am I at odds with the Times?  In a word, phones.  Lets take a quick look at 3 reasons why I believe netbooks are not going to catch on like the carriers hope:

Cost

 
The netbooks are only free for the hardware.  Carriers are more than happy to have you pay them for connectivity services, something you already pay for via your mobile phone (assuming you have some kind of data plan).  I don’t know about you, but the almost $50 a month in data charges is more than enough for me.  With an iPhone, users are already paying for a a data connection (and a pretty expensive one at that).  Adding another data stream doesn’t make sense for many of us.

Form factor

Carting around even these small laptop-sized netbooks is nearly as convenient as just using a phone sized device.  You can inconspicuously surf the net much easier on say a train with a phone vs. a netbook, not to mention in the bathroom (not that anyone is admitting to that).

Support

Intel and Microsoft are named by the Times to be the biggest losers in this shift to netbooks.  More open source devices are coming based on phone OSes and for what the netbook is aimed to do, that is about all it needs.  More and more web apps, less native.  You can bet Intel and MS will be working extra hard to tempt consumers to get something else besides a netbook.

Hedging my bet

Where netbooks may do well is just replacing the home computer.  Most users don’t do much besides surfing the net anyhow and there are a lot of web apps to accomplish much of what can be done locally by a more powerful machine.  So, instead of being oversold an expensive notebook or desktop, they end up undersold with a netbook.  This will be an attractive option vs. buying a big computer, arranging for broadband, setting up a wireless network and being overwhelmed.  This is where netbooks could thrive but will they be enough for users?

Surely the carriers don’t care, you just signed for 2-years.  (Cue the evil, “muh huh ha ha haaaa”).

Source: [New York Times]