Full FeedApp Stores are doomed, except Apple’s
It is easy to get excited about application stores for mobile phones. The applications can add new features, find ways to keep you entertained or just make R2D2 sounds (best $0.99 I spent yesterday). In the past six months, we’ve seen just about everyone announce they’ll have their own application store to offer applications for their mobile phone OS. Most will fail.
The app store paradox
It isn’t that applications are not great, they are. Using the iPhone as an example, one can turn their phone into a Pac-Man machine, food critic and marine chart plotter all with the simple swipe of a finger. What isn’t great is most of these application markets fight the “which came first” paradox; for the app store to thrive, they need developers; to get developers they need an influx of customers; to get an influx of customers they need lots of applications; to get lots of applications, they need developers.
The market can’t support infinite stores
How many app stores can the market support? I propose maybe two. Apple has such a head start combining elegant hardware with an app store that is thriving (25,000 apps at last count) that catching it may be out of the question for years. Android is being strangled by one compatible phone on the market for far too long. The promise of Android was that it was going to be everywhere. So far, that just isn’t happening.
CrackBerries
How about BlackBerry? I figure the BB app store will do well with corporate-focused apps but not too much on the consumer side. My logic is the typical BB user is still in the corporate world and has little time for goofing off, especially this year. Sure there will be a couple of games, but there is no huge draw for developers.
Nokia is still a bit of a non-starter in the US, as is Sony Ericcson. Windows Mobile suffers from a leadership problem, having been very visible in the market early on, only to whither on the vine with an aging OS and horrid GUI. I don’t expect much from their store either.
Will the Palm Pre lose that new car smell?
How will this affect the Pre? I see Pre’s biggest challenge not in the introduction and early sales; they should do pretty well there. The problems will start to creep up 4-7 months after introduction where the “newness” lust has worn off. Will we see steady demand for it as Apple has played its iPhone hand? The iPhone’s steady sales combined with being the first to offer such an ease of use for obtaining new apps continues to draw developers like sharks to bucket of chum.
What is your take? Can Android morph into something everyone wants or different versions to meet niches? Can BlackBerry inject fun into their app market? Can Pre compete on apps?
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This really reminds of when the iTunes Music store started to take off and it seemed like everybody thot they could set up an online music store—Walmart (twice), Napster, Sony, Real, Spiral Frog, Virgin, Coke, McDonalds and of course Microsoft (Janus, Plays-fer-Sure, Zune Marketplace) yada, yada, yada.
Setting up an online app store seems even more difficult to me. You need critical mass in at several different points—the hardware (including iPod touches, Apple has 30 million units in the wild now), developer profit/interest, delivery/micropayment method, worldwide penetration, good batch of already usable apps, bedroom and boardroom developers, lots of peripheral options. Apple already has a huge lead these areas and the fact that many want to dismiss it as a toy is irrelevant.
on March 24, 2009 at 12:24 PM - LINKSynthmeister, well put. I neglected to touch on the hardware, thanks for adding that to the discussion. Thanks.
on March 24, 2009 at 12:30 PM - LINKStop sucking Jobs’ dick, dumbass Mactard.
on March 24, 2009 at 02:09 PM - LINKYes, when all else fails, name calling is a great idea.
on March 24, 2009 at 04:00 PM - LINKI don’t think the iPhone or the app store have to worry about anyone knocking them out of the top spot. Apple is not a company that needs to be the first, they do pride themselves on being the best. They are.
on March 24, 2009 at 10:52 PM - LINKI agree with you ! apple has a good market !
on March 26, 2009 at 10:37 PM - LINKApple’s App store is a breeze to use. Makes it too easy to spend money. And at .99 or $4.99 at a time it doesn’t hurt as much as when I drop $50 bucks on a Wii game.
on March 28, 2009 at 05:20 PM - LINK